2016 China's crude steel output continued to decline

Since the third quarter of 2015, due to the significant decline in corporate profits, iron and steel enterprises have ceased production, according to statistics Zhuo record information, to mid-January 2016, the domestic iron and steel enterprises have completely discontinued 55, the cumulative production capacity of approximately 68.6 million tons . If these companies can not resume production of steel in 2016, most of them will become a zombie companies to enter the phase-out of sequence. If you take into account these discontinued production, steel production in 2015 fell to 11.5 million tons, even so China's crude steel capacity utilization is only 70%, is still serious overcapacity.

According to statistics, in 2016 there are 27.9 million tons of pig iron blast furnace new capacity, a total of 12 24,460 m3; the next few years there are plans to add 80 million tons of rolled products. On the whole, the 2016 steel production capacity will continue to increase, but new capacity fell slightly. Irrespective of capacity shutdowns, in 2016 China's crude steel production capacity is still about 12 million tons, considering the shutdown of production capacity, crude steel production capacity is expected to decline from the 1.15 billion tons to about 1.12 billion tons have.

China's crude steel output in 2015 accumulated about 806 million tons, compared with 2014, down 2%. After crude steel production peaked, not a rapid decline in production charts top or flat-top is formed of a longer period, crude steel production during this period or between 7.5-8 million tons.

2015 domestic crude steel production began to decline in growth rate is mainly affected by the economic slowdown and the impact of weakening downstream demand, GDP forecasting and fixed asset investment law has been unable to accurately predict crude steel production. Considering China's current economic performance, taking into account changes in the downstream consumer market, in 2016 China's crude steel output continued to decline is a high probability event.